To Handle Uncertain Situations With Success Shift Between Abstract and Concrete Thinking
Being caught off guard aggravates uncertainty
Dictionary defines uncertainty as a situation in which something is not known, or certain not certain. When we are unable to anticipate and things catch us off guard, we are pushed into an uncertain situation
For example, let’s say we expect to improve our market share, as we have always led the market with our product. But a new competitor who introduced a competing product has outsold us during the current quarter. That catches us by complete surprise. We wonder why we didn’t see it coming
Stanford Research explains failure to anticipate with Construal Level Theory
Prof Nir Halevy of Stanford Graduate Business School with two Stanford Researchers Elizabeth Miclauopen and Serena Lee went into the question of why some unexpected events catch us off guard while others don’t
Their research explains this phenomenon in terms of construal level theory. According to the construal level people represent objects and events in the world around them along a sliding scale. The scale runs from abstract to concrete. Secondly psychological distance from objects and events — temporal distance, social distance, spatial distance, and uncertainty — shifts how abstractly or concretely people think. Greater psychological distance tends to promote abstract thinking, while nearness results in concrete thinking. Both approaches have unique blind spots
Excessively Abstract or Concrete Thinking can both cause failure to anticipate
If our thinking is excessively abstract, then we apply poorly fitting mental models and misjudge possible threats and opportunities. Or we simply assume that other will behave in stereotypical ways.
Concrete thinkers, not willing to use some degree of abstraction, tend to get bogged down in small details leading to their failure to notice broad trends.
A sales head who uses only concrete thinking, for instance, may be so taken up with local market signals that he may be missing or misinterpreting broader industry patterns. On the other hand, a habitual abstract thinker may look at the historical culture of a rival company and based on this, assume its leadership will take a certain course of action that falls in line with this abstraction, which could turn out totally wrong.
Minimize strategic surprises and reduce uncertainty with two steps
So, to minimize strategic surprises and reduce uncertainty:
- Gather the best available information
- Consciously move your thinking between concrete and abstract frames when analyzing the information
How to toggle fluently between abstract and concrete frames – 4 Tips
Some tips on how to develop fluency in moving between abstract and concrete thinking:
- Consider “why” people engage in an activity. This encourages abstract thinking,
- Also think of the “how” of people and things to promote concrete thinking.
- Thinking about possibilities in the more distant future engages abstract thinking
- Generating ideas for the near future engages concrete thinking.
For example, when trying to anticipate a business rival’s behavior, try to think both about what they might do tomorrow as well as about what they might do next year.
You can read the Stanford Business Graduate School Insight on Why Surprises Catch Us Off Guard here
“The greatest difficulties lie where we are not looking for them”
— Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
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