Insights from past for tomorrow
Back to the Future Again
World is agog is excitement and fear over what new technologies driven by the AI wave can do to jobs, professions, industries, businesses and nations. There is widespread uncertainty and anxiety. But is this new?
A dive into our archives turned up a Focus feature written almost 3 decades ago in June 1998, on Emerging Technologies with a sub text that bravely announced “Scholars assemble a comprehensive forecast of coming technologies”
Key excerpts from the vintage article, clearly indicate a mood that was not very different then:

- In almost all scientific and technological fields, there is revolutionary innovation occurring. This 'sea-change' is driven primarily by the Information Technology but it is much larger in scope. Really speaking, we are not dealing with an information revolution but with a technology revolution.
- Forecasting Technology revolves around crucial time horizons. Five to ten years of forecasting is fairly predictable and falls in the realm of market research. While those more than 30-40 years can only be speculative. This leaves a 10-20 year window to make useful forecasts
- Most of the new technologies under study will arrive between the years 2003 and 2025. It is quite certain that all areas of endeavour are undergoing a serious transformation that in turn will transfer society. The four IT fields Hardware, Software, Communication and Information Services will herald the wave of innovation
- IT may lead but advances may be slower than conventional wisdom suggests. Entertainment on demand is not expected until 2003. It is only in 2018 that fifty percent of all goods in the US are sold through information services. Web TV with telephone capabilities may be in wide use only in 2005 or 2006. Intelligent Software agents in routine use may be seen only in 2009
- The helpful robot servants may arrive in 2016. Promising advances in nanotechnology and Microscopic machines, are indicated.
- News and mail can be filtered by sophisticated software. Expert systems may see routine use as surrogate doctors, lawyers and other professionals
- Alternative forms of energy, environmental management and transportation will make a serious transformation in lifestyles
- From all these forecasts, mindboggling in their magnitude, one message is crystal clear. No single nation can provide the necessary resources to mount huge projects such as planetay energy grid. If society wishes to pursue these goals, a profound restructuring of international relations lies ahead.
It is fascinating that many of the optimistic predictions came true ahead of time. And very few of the associated fears cane to pass. As poet Arthur Hugh Clough reminded us – “If hopes were dupes, fears may be liars”
Reading the article afresh is a revelation. It offers hope and optimism that mankind, will overcome the current uncertainties and emerge stronger and better, as it has always done in the past. Sales will continue flourish with sales professionals adding value to Customers in ways that technology alone may not be able to
You can read the full length article here
“I was the sum of all the obstacles I had to overcome.”
— David Goggins
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